HSDent - by Charles Sizemore⋅ July 27, 2010 - “The Internet’s sheer scale means that listening to all of the noise would result in information overload. Before it can be understood effectively, it needs to be harnessed into usable data.”

–Dalrymple and Chrysafis, 2010

The quote above is particular true in the financial markets, where we at HS Dent operate.  The Information Revolution of the 1990s unleashed incredible, exponential amounts of new information.  The rise of social media and standardized blogging platforms ten years later has kicked this revolution into overdrive.

The markets have continued up and may test resistance at the higher side of our targets at 10,600 today. However, our oscillators have gotten very overbought and the markets are due for a correction. We continue to think that the 2nd quarter GDP report will be disappointing tomorrow morning and that could trigger such a correction well into next week. The expectations are for 2.5% or higher growth and we think it could be closer to 2.0%.

Hence, investors should be out of the markets as we have previously warned and more aggressive investors and traders should be short by the end of the trading day today. Gold has also fallen to attractive levels at $1,160 and the U.S. dollar has strong support between 80.00 and 82.00 and it is now just below 82.00. Oil is also attractive as a hedge against geopolitical risks that are likely to rise in the coming weeks.

To my children and grandchildren…

With your focus on education, I often find myself thinking about how much the world has changed since I was in your shoes. The world is now a much “smaller” place—people of all cultures can communicate and travel with ease. You face great challenges today…just as I did…just as my parents before me. These words of advice might be helpful:

It takes little logic to conclude that the Homebuyer Tax Credit incentive is borrowing buyers from the future. Many of these buyers would have been in a position to purchase in the months ahead, given continued low interest rates and buyer-friendly home prices; this is reflected in recent home sales and mortgage application reports. For this to reverse five things need to happen:

1. Interst rate must remain low.

2. Private-sector wages will need to rise, enabling the current employed to better qualify for mortgages.

3. New jobs must to be created in the private-sector to bring new households into the homebuying ranks.

4. The consumer savings needs to increase thus creating the down payment and closing costs for home purchases.

5. Consumer Spending must increase.